Saturday, December 15, 2012

India will see another harsh year: Basu

NEW DELHI, December 15, 2012 PTI

India will see another 'harsh' year in terms of economic growth in 2013 as the European situation "will remain very difficult up to end of 2014," World Bank Chief Economist Kaushik Basu said here on Friday.

"Next year will also be very harsh (for India)...the European situation will remain very difficult up to end of 2014 and may be to the beginning of 2015. And Europe is a very major player, so that is going to rub off on India. The growth scenario will be difficult," Dr. Basu told reporters on the sidelines of the Delhi Economic Conclave.

However, Dr. Basu, who from December 2009 to July 2012 served as the Chief Economic Advisor to the Union Government, said the country in next two years might get back to the 8-9 per cent growth rate. "Give India two-three years. India has enough fundamental strength that if you work towards these, then really there is no reason why India can't get back to 8-9 per cent growth," Dr. Basu said.

It would be good if India could bounce back to 6-7 per cent growth in this difficult situation, he added.

"...the global climate is tough so its not going to happen that we will bounce back to the 9 per cent growth that we had before 2008. But we should be able to buck the global trend and have India move up with the reforms and few more."

World Bank

The World Bank had projected growth of about 5.5 per cent for the calendar year 2012 for India and below 6 per cent for 2013, Dr. Basu said.

However, for 2014 and 2015, the World Bank has projected economic growth close to about 7 per cent.

On inflation, he said it was a good sign that core inflation was beginning to trend down.
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