PAU EXPERTS PREDICT PRICE AND MARKET TRENDS IN MUSTARD

LUDHIANA, MARCH 29:-----





Harvesting of mustard in Punjab starts from last week of March and market arrivals starts in April. It is important for the farmers to know the expected prices and other relevant production and marketing information in order to make decision whether to sell the out put immediately on harvesting or to store it for some time to fetch higher prices in lean season. Dr. Jagroop Singh Sidhu, Incharge, Agricultural Market Intelligence Centre (AMIC) of PAU, disclosed that AMIC has gathered and analyzed this information to help the farmers and other stakeholders to take adequate decisions.





Mustard oil is the third largest edible oil produced in the world after soy oil and palm oil, said he. The production and consumption of oil has been growing at the rate of 4.65 % and 5 % respectively during the last decade. The estimated world production for canola-rapeseed stands at 60 million tons (mt) contributing 12-13% of the total world oilseeds production while for oil its world production is estimated at 20-22 mt. Canada (31 %), Nepal (26 %), Ukraine (7 %), Russian Federation and Czech Republic (5% each) are the leading producers of mustard seed.





Dr. Sidhu elaborated that mustard contributes about 40% of total edible oil production in the country. Almost all the mustard production is consumed within the country for cooking; making hydrogenated fats (vanaspati) and the residue (oil meal) is used as livestock feed. According to the latest sowing data available, area under mustard in India is about 71 lakh hectares against 64 lakh hectares last year, said he adding that due to higher acreage and favorable weather conditions mustard production in country is expected to increase by 10 to 15 % compared to last year. Rajasthan is the leading mustard producing state in India contributing about 45 % of total production followed by UP (15 %), Madhya Pradesh (9 %), Haryana, Gujarat and West Bengal (6-7 % each). Hapur, Jaipur, Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Indore, Alwar, Bharatpur, Jaipur, Sri Ganganagar in Rajasthan and Delhi are the major trading centres for this.







In Punjab the area under rapeseed and mustard crop is expected to increase from 30 thousand hectares in 2009-10 to about 36 thousands hectares during 2010-11. The total production of rapeseed and mustard in the state may increase from 39 to 43 thousand tons during the same period. The major mustard producing districts are Ferozepur, Bathinda, Gurdaspur, Hoshiarpur and Mansa. The state production is not sufficient to meet the demand of small scale unorganized and organized oil industry/solvent extraction plants of the state. Peak marketing season for this crop is April - May and most of the crop is marketed through the regulated markets.



Overall the price of the mustard is affected by the supply and demand of its oil, international prices of edible oils and the government trade policy in respect of edible oils. Dr. Sidhu informed that price of other domestic and global oil seeds also have significant bearing on mustard seed prices. Government of India had raised the Minimum Support Price of mustard by Rs 20 per quintal from Rs 1830 per quintal to Rs 1850 per quintal. However, in Punjab state the mustard prices usually remain above the MSP. The mustard prices which peaked to around Rs 2600 per quintal during marketing season of 2008 had been ruling in the range of Rs 2000 to 2400 per quintal for the last two years due to the government duty free edible oils import policy, said he.



Projection of record kharif oilseeds production is likely to put downward pressure on mustard prices, observed Dr. Sidhu. Based on analysis of monthly prices of mustard for past twelve years, traders' opinion, price futures and existing import policy of government, the AMIC is of the view that mustard prices are expected to prevail in the range of Rs 2200 to 2400 per quintal during April - May, 2011 and may further increase by about Rs 100 to 200 per quintal in subsequent months. Farmers should keep this information in mind while taking their mustard selling and storage decisions.


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