WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO RAINFALL

This year monsoon sets over Andaman sea around May 17, i.e 3 days before its normal date, reached Kerala May 31 only one day in advance and further advanced over Northeastern states by June 2. This was stated by the PAU Agrometeorologist, Dr. K.K.Gill, while tracing the weather that prevailed since May. She added that around June 6 the monsoon again gets activated and by middle of June it covered nearly half of the country and reached Punjab well in time on July 5 as compared to last year when it touched Punjab on June 30. In 2010, the first stage forecast for SW monsoon rainfall over country issued on April 23, and second stage forecast issued on June 25. The experimental forecast from majority of the statistical and dynamical models suggest normal to above normal monsoon season rainfall over the country as a whole, said Dr. Gill.

She elaborated that the El-Nino conditions over equatorial pacific that started in Mid June 2009 peaked in December and dissipated during May,2010. Since then, ENSO neutral conditions are prevailing with negative SST anomalies observed over the equatorial pacific from middle of May. This continued till mid June when weak La Nina conditions emerged, explained Dr. Gill. The latest model forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate very high probability for the La-Nina conditions to continue during remaining part of the monsoon season. The La-Nina conditions in general are associated with the normal or above normal rainfall during the monsoon season as a whole, said she.

During June, Ludhiana received 33.2 mm of rainfall this year while last year it was 110.6 mm against the normal of 66.4 mm. In the month of July S-W monsoon continuing a rapid revival after falling 50 percent short of normal in June and Ludhiana recorded 381.7 mm of rainfall against the normal of 232 mm and 17 days were observed against the normal 9 days of this month, mentioned Dr. Gill.

In the month of August till date 106 mm of rainfall has been recorded against the normal of 180 mm. Good monsoon rains have raised the water level in the Indian reservoirs to 49 percent of capacity and also recharging the water table. No doubt the monsoon rainfall is the main source of water for summer crops and also gave relief from power cuts.

This year the heavy downpour is also bringing down mercury sharply, said Dr. Gill. In June the maximum and minimum temperatures were recorded at 38.7 and 25.9o C against the normal of 38.9 and 25.6oC, respectively. Similarly, in the months of July and August the temperatures remained near normal keeping mercury at comfortable levels. She predicted that the monsoon rains are likely to be normal next week in most parts of country The low pressure area over west central Bay of Bengal and adjoining coastal Andhra Pradesh, with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid-tropospheric levels and tilting southwestwards with height, persists.



Discussing the weather trend, Dr. Gill said that the system is likely to move upwards and weather remained pleasant giving relief from rainfall in coming 2-3 days. The average rainfall recorded in Punjab is 342.2 mm from 1.6.2010 to 18.8.2010 which is nearly normal, she observed. Delving on the current flood like conditions in Punjab, Dr. Gill said that it is all due to inefficient drainage system and not because of excessive rainfall. She predicted that in near future weather is expected to be partly cloudy with no rainfall.
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